polx

live · scanning Polymarket every 5 minutes

We price every match ourselves.
Then we check Polymarket.

A calibrated model finds sports markets the crowd has mispriced — and shows you every pick, live, with the reasoning. Free while we're in beta.

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Settled pick

Will Ecuador vs Curaçao end in a draw?

CROWD
9.5¢
MODEL
22.0¢
bought 9.5¢ · settled $1.00 PAID 10.5×
Live record
Picks settled0all published
Biggest win0.5×Ecuador–Curaçao draw
ROI, flat stakes+0%simulated
Last signal—scan loop live
Recent wins
06-27 Ecuador vs Curaçao — draw · 9.5¢ + 10.5×
06-27 England vs Ghana — draw · 12.5¢ + 8.0×
06-27 Uruguay vs Spain — no draw · 69.5¢ + $1.00
06-27 Switzerland vs Canada — no draw · 67.5¢ + $1.00
06-25 Czechia vs Mexico — no draw · 66.5¢ + $1.00
06-22 Argentina vs Austria — no draw · 72.5¢ + $1.00

How these happen: the crowd overloads the favourite and leaves the draw priced at cents. The model prices every fixture independently and buys the gap — when it lands, it pays 8–10× the stake.

The method
  1. 1
    Price. Elo + a Poisson goal model, the same math every day.
  2. 2
    Compare. Signals fire only in a narrow band of modest disagreement — extreme edges are excluded by policy.
  3. 3
    Act. Every pick lands in your portal feed the moment it fires.
Full methodology →
Where the wins come from

The crowd chases favourites. We buy what it leaves behind.

In big-name fixtures the market piles onto the favourite and the draw gets orphaned at 9–13¢ — while its true rate in international football runs far higher. Two venues price it cheap; the model prices it right; the winners pay 8–10×.

Your account, your keys

Your wallet stays yours.

  • Link your Polymarket wallet with one free signature
  • See your positions next to our picks — read-only
  • Automated execution comes later: capped and revocable
Not a tipster service
  • – Picks with no visible method
  • – Screenshots you can't verify
  • + A published method and an on-chain, auditable record
  • + Prediction-market prices no bookmaker can limit you on
Free during beta

The record, the feed, the reasoning — free.

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Questions we actually get

How big are the wins?

The signature picks are draws bought at 9–13¢ that settle at $1.00 — eight to ten times the stake. The model hunts exactly these: markets where the crowd's price and the true probability are furthest apart. It's a longshot style, so returns come in bursts across a series of picks rather than steadily.

What does free actually include?

Everything that exists today: the live signal feed, the full settled record, wallet linking with a read-only view of your Polymarket positions, and the methodology. Paid tiers arrive with real-time delivery and automated execution — beta users get the launch discount.

Do you hold my money?

No, and we never will. Signals are information. Automated execution, when it ships, places orders from your own wallet using a signing key you can revoke at any time. Funds and positions never leave your custody.

Can I verify the results?

Yes — every polx pick settles on-chain against the UMA oracle, so the outcome is never ours to grade. The full pick-by-pick record is in the portal, free.

Why don't you publish your exact thresholds?

Because they're the product. The concept — independent pricing, disciplined edge bands, on-chain settlement — is public. The exact gates, per-band results and calibration detail ship in the full model card with Pro.

Is this financial advice?

No. polx is a research tool for prediction-market traders. Positions can lose. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade, and it's for adults (18+) only.

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